The Orioles Can Win the World Series

Though they may be underdogs, the Baltimore Orioles are certainly capable of winning the World Series this year. Five reasons why:

“1. No. 1 — and, you could certainly argue numbers two through five as well — is the bullpen. The O’s went 73-0 when leading after the seventh inning. As relievers, Tommy Hunter is touching 100 mph and Brian Matusz has struck out 19 batters in 13 innings. Then there’s Troy Patton (2.43 ERA), Pedro Strop (2.44), Darren O’Day (2.28), and Jim Johnson (2.49, 51 saves) to finish things out. While it might not be the best bullpen ever — or even the best bullpen in the league this year — it may have been the most “effective” pen in history, as noted by its record-setting (record-obliterating, really) +14 Win Probability Added. Maybe 16 consecutive extra-inning wins and a 29-9 record in one-run games (the best since the 1800s) is partially a fluke, but having a quality bullpen certainly doesn’t hurt in keeping that going.

2. Buck Showalter. Aside from bullpen management that’s been so effective, Buck seems to just make all the right moves, putting guys in positions to succeed and making in-game decisions that seem to work even when they probably shouldn’t. Sac bunt? You get the run you need. Hit and run? Batted ball goes right to where the second baseman was. Bring in Chris Davis to pitch? Two shutout innings, a pair of strikeouts (including Adrian Gonzalez!), and a win. Judging managers is tricky, but it would be mighty hard to argue that Buck isn’t a net plus.

3. A surging offense. Overall, the O’s were a little below average, but since the beginning of September they’ve actually been one of the league’s better hitting teams (with an AL-best 50 home runs). It’s mostly been the Davis show recently (.320/.397/.660, 10 home runs), but Matt Wieters (.296/.389/.541), Adam Jones (.295/.343/.504), and Nate McLouth (!) (.280/.355/.456) haven’t been slouches either.

4. An improved defense. The glove work was often sloppy early in the year, all around the diamond, but not so much lately (largely since Manny Machado was called up). Machado is a shortstop (with the range that implies) playing third base, and adjusting both well and quickly to it. J.J. Hardy is one of the game’s better shortstops. Whoever is playing second is decent (Robert Andino or Ryan Flaherty). Mark Reynolds may have found a home a first base, even if he’s not a Gold Glover there (yet!). The O’s fielding (via FanGraphs) for the first four months: -20 runs. Fielding since: +0.

5. Orioles magic. Even if you count the O’s as underdogs in each playoff series — and really, you probably should — they still have a 3-5 percent chance of winning it all (those chances double if they knock off Texas, by the way).”

If you are into baseball betting, you would have known that 3-5% is still greater than odds most people gave before the season of the Orioles even making the playoffs this year. And, well, here they are.