Game 23: Orioles vs. Red Sox

The Orioles get a nice come from behind win yesterday (though it shouldn’t have been that way in the first place) and have the opportunity for a sweet against the Red Sox today (though it’s still a win, can’t believe I’m complaining).  They face Jon Lester and a win won’t come easily.

Red Sox:

Batting Fielding fWAR
Jacoby Ellsbury .244/.311/.451 -1 0.3
Dustin Pedroia .271/.394/.388 3 1.0
Kevin Youkilis .214/.378/.500 -1 0.7
Adrian Gonzalez .290/.359/.430 4 0.8
David Ortiz .274/.393/.425 0 0.4
J.D. Drew .283/.394/.400 3 0.7
Jarrod Saltalamacchia .186/.255/.233 -1 -0.2
Carl Crawford .156/.200/.222 -2 -1.0
Marco Scutaro .204/.304/.245 1 0.1

A solid lineup that has its strong spots and its weak spots.  Ellsbury does a great job in the leadoff spot, and all the way through J.D. Drew the Red Sox are solid.  But after that, their final three are shaky.  Saltalamacchia hasn’t lived up to his former top prospect status yet, and Crawford is not off to the start the Red Sox asked for at all.

Jon Lester:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
2.59 3.61 3.23 8.6 3.2 59.2% 0.6

Lester has been very good this season, as expected.  Very good strikeout rate, the O’s are going to have his pitch count today if they want to get on base (need more than the amount of walks yesterday… won’t even mention how many it was).  Nice high GB%, and though his HR/FB% is high, all those homers came in his first start in Texas.  However, if the O’s can get it up, they might be able to get some home runs.

Really works that curveball low and has a good sinker and cutter to complement his solid fastball.  His change up is also a solid pitch that gets a decent amount of swings and misses.  He keeps most of his pitches low which is why Lester gets plenty of ground ball outs.

Orioles:

Batting Fielding fWAR
Brian Roberts .261/.289/.424 -1 0.2
Nick Markakis .209/.274/.302 -3 -0.5
Derrek Lee .247/.319/.318 0 -0.1
Vladimir Guerrero .286/.286/.407 0 0.0
Adam Jones .240/.277/.467 1 0.4
Matt Wieters .262/.333/.462 0 0.6
Mark Reynolds .178/.253/.342 -4 -0.5
Jake Fox .167/.250/.444 0 0.0
Robert Andino .286/.359/.286 2 0.3

The O’s got going yesterday in the offensive category and did a great job battling the whole game.  Even after they lost a four run lead (thanks to the ‘pen), the O’s came back and Vlad got a nice RBI in the 8th to get the win.

Brad Bergesen:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
5.40 5.73 4.38 5.9 2.2 38.6% -0.1

Bergesen has struggled this year, and these struggles have come partially because he’s having troubles keeping the ball down.  He averages a little over 2 HR/9 innings, which is not good at all.  He needs to get more ground balls and do a better job locating his pitches or it will be a short outing for Bergy.

Keeps most of his pitches up, which tends to be Bergy’s biggest problem.  He’s not a swing-and-miss pitcher, if you can’t tell.  Needs to work on his location and keep his walk count down tonight if he wants to go deep into the game.


Stats: UZRWARERAFIPxFIPK/9 & BB/9GB%PitchFX