ChrisTillmanGame10

Game 10: Orioles at Yankees

The O’s are coming off their first series loss of the season. Naturally, Yankee Stadium is a great place to get back on track. With the rain-out, it’s only a two-game set. Makes it easier to get the sweep, I guess.

Yankees:

Batting Fielding fWAR
Brett Gardner .167/.265/.267 0 -0.1
Derek Jeter .206/.300/.235 0 -0.1
Mark Teixeira .182/.325/.545 0 0.2
Alex Rodriguez .321/.441/.714 0 0.6
Robinson Cano .324/.342/.595 0 0.4
Nick Swisher .219/.289/.250 0 -0.1
Jorge Posada .138/.194/.448 0 -0.1
Curtis Granderson .172/.250/.414 0 0.1
Russell Martin .30/.344/.633 0 0.5

Yeah, there’s some aging. But this is still a deep and dangerous line-up.

AJ Burnett:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
4.09 3.02 3.17 9.0 2.5 29.0% 0.3

Burnett’s 5.26 ERA last year wasn’t completely representative of his pitching (4.46 xFIP), and he’s started off 2011 pretty well.

AJBurnettGame10

There’s never been much question about AJ’s stuff. His fastball is down from 95-96 to ~93 mph, but that’s still plenty hard and he’s got that sharp curve.

Orioles:

Batting Fielding fWAR
Brian Roberts .189/.211/.432 0 0.0
Nick Markakis .250/.342/.375 0 0.1
Derrek Lee .219/.324/.344 0 0.0
Vladimir Guerrero .270/.270/.378 0 -0.1
Matt Wieters .192/.276/.231 0 0.0
Adam Jones .212/.229/.394 0 0.0
Mark Reynolds .241/.333/.448 0 0.2
Matt Wieters .192/.276/.231 0 0.0
Robert Andino .000/.000/.000 0 -0.2

While Hardy’s out (looks like 2-3 weeks instead of 6 now), the O’s can get a nice little offense-defense platoon going at short. Izturis starts when you need more D there (like with Britton on the mound) and Andino starts when you can give up some defense in favor of upgrading from atrocious to merely bad offensively (like with Tillman on the mound).

Chris Tillman:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
3.38 3.96 4.79 7.6 4.2 28.6% 0.2

I expect the 4.2 BB/9 to come down. Hopefully the 7.6 K/9 doesn’t.

Imagining Tillman pitching against the Yankees, I see Robbie Cano hitting an 88 mph fastball, left up in the zone, very, very hard. I’ve split out his cutters – which PitchFX categorizes as fastballs or change-ups – on the movement chart, since they were a pretty distinct group (though I forgot to label them… oops). Pulling out the velocity and whiffs for them was trickier, so they’re still mixed in with the other pitches there.


Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%PitchFX