Andy MacPhail’s Out As The Orioles’ GM

The news is now official; Andy MacPhail is leaving his post as the Orioles’ General Manager. Who is going to replace him is still up in the air (Buck Showalter declined to move up, but that he will unfortunately have a strong hand in what the next GM will be doing). Instead of looking forward to prospective candidates – there are many who seem good, but we can’t really know and, in any case, who can say if a potentially good hire will even be allowed to do what he needs to – I’m going to take a quick look back at MacPhail’s tenure in Baltimore.

It seems like there has been progress in non-on-field related matters with the Orioles, but it’s hard to judge the real affects of that and areas like player development surely have a long way to go. This is not a complete list of moves, but I tried to hit all the significant ones and the others should close to balance out.

The fWAR is the player’s Wins Above Replacement as an Orioles (if he was added) or the fWAR he produced for another team for the time he would have been under the O’s control. The $fWAR is the free agent market value of the fWAR. $ is the salary, and Net is the difference there, with the sign switched for players dealt (so if Miguel Tejada was overpaid by $2 M, then that’s actually a plus to Andy MacPhail who moved him).

Trades:

Player fWAR $fWAR $ Net
Traded for Tommy Hunter 0.6 2.6 0.2 2.4
Traded for Chris Davis -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -1.4
   Dealt Koji Uehara 0.1 0.5 1 0.5
Traded for JJ Hardy 4.8 21.8 5.9 16.0
Traded for Brendan Harris 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0
   Dealt Jim Hoey -0.4 -1.7 0.4 2.1
Traded for Mark Reynolds 0.3 1.3 5.0 -3.7
   Dealt David Hernandez 1.3 5.9 0.4 -5.5
   Dealt Kam Mickolio 0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.4
Traded for Kevin Millwood 1.3 5.2 9.0 -3.8
   Dealt Chris Ray 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.0
Traded for Josh Bell -1.1 -4.6 0.5 -5.1
   Dealt George Sherrill -0.1 0.0 5.3 5.3
Traded for Rhyne Hughes -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -1.0
   Dealt Gregg Zaun 0.5 2.2 1.0 -1.2
Traded for Robert Andino 2.3 10.2 0.8 9.4
   Dealt Hayden Penn -0.2 -1.0 0.8 1.8
Traded for Felix Pie -0.4 -2.1 1.8 -3.9
   Dealt Garrett Olson -1.1 -4.4 0.9 5.3
Traded for Ryan Freel 0.1 0.3 1.5 -1.2
   Dealt Ramon Hernandez -0.1 -0.3 7.5 7.8
Traded for Adam Jones 9.1 39.7 4.5 35.2
Traded for Chris Tillman 0.7 3.4 0.8 2.6
Traded for George Sherrill 1.4 6.2 2.9 3.3
Traded for Kam Mickolio 0.4 1.8 0.4 1.4
   Dealt Erik Bedard 2.9 13.0 14.8 1.8
Traded for Luke Scott 6.0 25.7 13.3 12.4
Traded for Matt Albers 1.3 5.7 1.5 4.2
Traded for Troy Patton 0.5 2.4 0.8 1.6
   Dealt Miguel Tejada 6.1 27.6 29.6 2.0

The best trade, by a mile, is sending Erik Bedard to Seattle for Adam Jones (+$44 M overall for the O’s). That was an easy slam-dunk at the time, and has pretty much turned out that way. Next is Miguel Tejada to Houston for (mostly) Luke Scott at +$20 M total. JJ Hardy was so good and was acquired so cheaply that after one year that deal is already +$17 M. Overall, the trades came out to +$86 M, so this has been an area of strength for MacPhail. No move that didn’t look like an obvious win when it was made has turned out tremendously well, but at least there aren’t any big clunkers.

Signings:

Player fWAR $fWAR $ Net
Signed Derrek Lee 0.5 2.1 5.0 -2.9
Signed Vlad Guerrero 0.0 0.0 8.0 -8.0
Signed Kevin Gregg -0.3 -1.3 4.2 -5.5
Signed Miguel Tejada -0.4 -1.6 5.1 -6.7
Signed Mike Gonzalez 0.8 3.3 11.0 -7.7
Signed Garrett Atkins -1.1 -4.4 4.0 -8.4
Signed Corey Patterson 1.0 3.9 1.0 2.9
Signed Koji Uehara 4.2 18.2 13.0 5.2
Singed Mark Hendrickson 1.0 4.3 3.7 0.6
Signed Cesar Izturs 0.5 2.5 6.5 -4.0
Signed Ty Wigginton -1.0 -4.4 6.0 -10.4
Signed Gregg Zaun 0.8 3.8 1.0 2.8
Extended Brian Roberts 1.6 6.4 20.0 -13.6
Extended Nick Markakis 7.1 30.9 20.0 10.9

Bringing Koji Uehara aboard – and then bringing him back – was a good move. Otherwise it’s mostly a mess. The total is -$45 M. The JJ Hardy extension looks like it’ll be good, but I imagine what’s left of Brian Roberts’ and Kevin Gregg’s contracts will more than wipe that away (only through 2011 is included here). Nick Markakis was been plus, but he would have been under team control for this time anyway (so one could fairly disregard the +$11 M there), and I assume that if Andy MacPhail can go back he wouldn’t have guaranteed a somewhat above average player $66 M.

Overall, Andy MacPhail’s tenure has been OK but not particularly fantastic. That probably sums it up for everything (not just the signings and trades). One could say he got the Orioles out of the ditch, but the car isn’t really running yet. Hopefully whoever is hired to replace him takes the next step (or three).