2011 Orioles Projections: Pitchers

The Orioles’ pitching staff was one of the worst in the majors last year, and improvements in that area are largely going to have to come from some young starters stepping up.

Rotation:

Jeremy Guthrie: 180 IP, 4.15 ERA, 2.8 Wins Above Replacement
Brian Matusz: 175 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.2 WAR
Justin Duchscherer: 75 IP, 4.50 ERA, 0.9 WAR
Brad Bergesen: 160 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.4 WAR
Jake Arrieta: 130 IP, 5.00 ERA, 0.8 WAR
Chris Tillman: 120 IP, 5.00 ERA, 0.7 WAR
Zach Britton: 50 IP, 5.25 ERA, 0.2 WAR
Misc: 45 IP, 5.50 ERA, 0 WAR

Total: 4.60 ERA, 9.9 WAR

Bullpen:

Kevin Gregg: 55 IP, 4.00 ERA, 0.4 WAR
Koji Uehara: 50 IP, 3.50 ERA, 0.8 WAR
Mike Gonzalez: 45 IP, 4.00 ERA, 0.3 WAR
Jim Johnson: 50 IP, 4.00 ERA, 0.3 WAR
Jason Berken: 55 IP, 4.00 ERA, 0.4 WAR
Mark Hendrickson: 50 IP, 4.50 ERA, 0.1 WAR
Misc: 200 IP, 5.00 ERA, -0.2 WAR

Total: 4.40 ERA, 2.0 WAR

This gives the pitching staff a 4.53 ERA overall, which would be a slight improvement over 2010 (4.59 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.62 xFIP). There’s some upside at the back end of the rotation, but there’s also a chance of Arrieta, Tillman, etc. getting knocked around. The bullpen is full of solid arms, though Koji (if healthy) is the only really good reliever. That Gregg doesn’t stand out much aside from his career saves totals, which is part of why the signing wasn’t very good. As long as the injury bug doesn’t bite to hard though, the O’s pitchers should be able to keep them in games often enough.


Stats: ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR