What A Difference A Win Makes

Yesterday’s 11-5 win over the Marlins was big for the team, improving overall season level of play more than I’ve seen in a while (and making me a happy camper; temporarily, anyway). The update to 2010 Orioles Beyond W-L:

Where they stand:

Actual Runs Scored Actual Runs Allowed Wins-Losses Pythagorean W% Pythagorean Wins-Losses
245 386 20-52 .300 22-50

The Pythagorean winning percentage is based on runs scored and runs allowed, and is actually using the Pythagenpat^ formula that adjusts for run scoring environment. 22-50 is still terrible, but it’s better than the Pirates (20-52) and close to the Astros (24-49).

Some underlying stats:

wOBA Baserunning FIP xFIP xFIP Runs Defense
.304 -2 4.90 4.84 368 -16

wOBA^ takes care of the batting (and stolen bases), with wRC (total runs created based on wOBA from FanGraphs) being the main component of expected runs scored. Baserunning^ from Baseball Prospectus is the other part there. xFIP Runs just takes xFIP^ times games (IP over 9) and divided by .92 to go from earned runs to runs, and combines with defense (average of UZR^ and adjusted Defensive Runs Saved based on +/-, with the latter’s stolen base values for catcher defense counting double since UZR doesn’t account for that) to give the expected runs allowed.

After having a wOBA hovering right around the .300 level what seems like an eternity, it’s up to (a still terrible) .304. Not a big improvement, but I don’t remember the last time it’s been that high. It’s not even the worst mark in the league, with Seattle at .296.

After a decent start, the pitching has gotten a fair bit worse. In the early goings of the season, I was saying that the team wasn’t as bad as their record implied. Instead of their record coming up to meet their play though, their play (largely from the hurlers) went down to meet their record. The team’s 5.06 ERA is the worst in the league; their 4.90 FIP is easily the worst; and their xFIP is just a tick worse than Cleveland’s.

The defense has also been terrible, with a +5 runs on stolen bases helping out a little bit there. So far Miguel Tejada at +1 runs has been the best fielder at his position according to UZR. Ty Wigginton’s probably the biggest offender, pulling in marks of -2.6, -2.7, and -3.5 runs at first, third, and second, respectively. Yikes.

For whatever complaints one may have about the team’s baserunning, it really hasn’t mattered that much. They’re -2 runs on stolen bases (32 for 49 – just a 65% success rate – which is already included in wOBA), and -2 on non-stolen base baserunning.

Record implied by the underlying stats:

Expected Runs Scored Expected Runs Allowed Expected W% Expected Wins-Losses
267 384 .336 24-48

Incorporating strength of schedule:

Adjusted Runs Scored Adjusted Runs Allowed Adjusted W% Adjusted Wins-Losses
279 374 .366 26-46

Baseball Prospectus has a strength of schedule adjustment in their standings page (which doesn’t always update daily), and I just take the differences between their second order runs scored and allowed (like the expected values above) and their third order runs (which are the adjusted values) and add them to the expected runs above.

Using the expected winning percentage, O’s have played like a 59 win baseball team so far. If they stay at that level for the rest of the season, they’ll finish with 53 wins. Definitely not what most of us thought would happen coming into 2010, but a few games better than where things stood yesterday.