Orioles Fall In The Power Rankings

To 16th. And that’s the Beyond the Box Score power ranking, by the way, which look at underlying stats (not so bad) instead of just win-loss record (bad). The numbers are only through their 8th game of the season though, so a fall after yesterday’s 9-1 drubbing would be expected. How much of a drop?

Offensively, the O’s have scored 27 runs in 9 games. JinAZ at BtB has them with a .312 wOBA^, and 32 expected runs scored based on that. Now those figures are .308 and 34. The disparity between actual and expected largely comes from their troubles with runners in scoring position (.152/.263/.227 line with a .173 BABIP^ – and a hilarious .032/.118/.032 line with a .042 BABIP with RISP and 2 outs).

On the pitching side, the Orioles have given up 49 runs with a 4.52 FIP^ and a 4.44 xFIP^. The FIP is a big jump from JinAZ’s 4.32, but the xFIP is only slightly higher than what he had (4.38). Multiplying the xFIP by 9 games, we get about 40 expected runs from the pitching. A lot of that difference is due to a .328 BABIP that’s easily the highest in the AL.

Defensively, the O’s DRS* went from +1 to -2 and I’ll assume the +3 catcher fielding runs JinAZ came up with still holds (which matches the +3 stolen base runs from FanGraphs). So that’s a total defense of +1 runs saved, which brings the expected runs allowed down to 39.

* FanGraphs added John Dewan’s plus-minus numbers recently. The UZRs aren’t available yet, but the Defensive Runs Saved (DSR) from +/- are.

So while the Orioles have scored 27 runs and given up 49 (a .243 winning percentage), their expected runs scored (34) and allowed (39) would give them a .438 W% – and 4 wins out of the 9 games. If you add in the league adjustment (since the AL is harder), then the O’s still drop all the way down to 24th spot in the power rankings.

First of all, that 9-1 game against the Rays hurt… yikes. Second of all, considering the 1-8 record and general doom-and-glooming going on, still ranking ahead of five other major league baseball teams as well as the Houston Astros isn’t half bad. The pitching and defense are holding serve (more or less), and just waiting for the bats to show up. Also, some better luck would be nice.

I’m planning on keeping this kind of analysis current throughout the season, and there’s a link at the top of blog – 2010 Orioles Beyond W-L – where it’ll be updated daily.