Game 45: Orioles vs. A’s

Coming off of the series loss to the Nationals and with an off-day yesterday, I thought that Dave Trembley was very likely to be fired. Well he’s still around, and it might take another moderately prolonged losing streak to see him go. Jeremy Guthrie will try to stop the current one at two, against lefty Dallas Braden and the A’s. I’d pay $10 to see Guts pitch the top of the first and then as he’s coming off the field to gesture towards the mound and given Braden permission to use it.

In other news, Koji is on the DL with a strained ligament in his elbow apparently. Not terribly confident he’ll accumulate even 15 more innings this year, and though his contract looks bad now I still think it was a decent move at the time (and he pitched well as a starter when he was healthy last year).

The Sauce is also cooked, with Alfredo Simon going on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. He got hurt on Sunday, and was replaced by Meredith who promptly gave up the walk-off homer. He should be back as soon as possible though. I have no idea who’ll come in if the O’s have a 3 run lead in the 9th at this point – Albers/Meredith for righties, Ohman for lefties? Hernandez? Berken (yaye!)?- but I think that’s a problem Dave Trembley might like to have to deal with tonight.

No A’s line-up today, but they’re not the most stellar offensive club around. In fact, the O’s have passed them in team wOBA, .309 to .305 (both terrible).

Braden:

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP^ xFIP^ WAR^
5.3 1.4 0.9 41.6% 3.71 4.14 1.1

Is there something better than a perfect game that Braden can throw against the O’s offense? It’s funny, since Dallas beat the O’s in his MLB debut

His stuff^:

Braden doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he’ll throw strikes and mix his pitches. There’s a big change in speed from the heater to the off-speed stuff, which probably makes the former seem a little faster. He also supposedly throws a screwball in occasion. I don’t think Braden will beat the Orioles, but there’ a pretty decent chance that he’ll set them up to beat themselves.

O’s line-up:

Bat Pos Batting Def WAR
Patterson, Corey L LF .286/.375/.469 0.7 0.5
Wigginton, Ty R 1B .294/.359/.601 0.6 1.3
Markakis, Nick L RF .304/.406/.427 -0.6 1.1
Tejada, Miguel R 3B .265/.305/.386 0.1 0.4
Scott, Luke L DH .273/.338/.538 0.8
Jones, Adam R CF .250/.275/.364 -2.5 -0.1
Wieters, Matt S C .257/.319/.362 2 0.7
Lugo, Julio R 2B .213/.250/.248 -0.7 -0.2
Izturis, Cesar S SS .228/.299/.246 1.7 -0.1

Hey, Adam’s almost back to replacement level! Woo!

Edit: Looks like Atkins will be in there at DH instead of Scott (and bat 8th). Luke apparently has a left shoulder strain. Awesome.

Guthrie:

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP xFIP WAR
5.9 1.5 1.1 41.9% 4.27 4.56 0.8

Jeremy’s BABIP^ is down at .259, which partially explains why his ERA is as low as it is (3.86).