Game 16: Orioles at Mariners

The Orioles offense is struggling mightily, and they’ve been shut down by Doug Fister and Jason Vargas. I guess that means they’re going to pummel Felix Hernandez in the reverse lock of the day. Kevin Millwood will try to keep his great start going for the Birds. Have soft-ball practice tonight so no line-ups to post. I should be back in time for the game though, so feel free to discuss the certain victory in the comments. And remember; a team is never quite as bad as they look when they’re losing.

Felix:

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP^ xFIP^  
8.0 4.0 0.4 64.7% 3.37 3.47  

Control hasn’t been were it usually is, but guys that miss bats and keep the ball on the ground tend to be very successful (duh).

His stuff^:

Hernandez will sit 93-94 with the fastball, and compliment it with a good sinker. He throws a hard slider that gets quite a bit of drop, as well as a pretty hard curveball. He’s gone to the latter offering much more in 2010, after a couple of seasons of splitting things up between the two. Felix’s change-up comes in with the same velocity as many pitcher’s fastballs, and has been a good pitch for him throughout his career according to FanGraphs’ run values (consistently his best pitch, in fact – though that’s certainly not in a vacuum). As much as I like watching him pitch – and with all apologies to the many Seattle fans out there – I’m not hoping for a particularly happy King Felix Day.

Millwood:

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP xFIP  
9.6 0.5 1.9 39.7% 3.83 2.80  

He’s been better than anyone had any right to expect so far, and yet he still has an 0-2 record. Millwood’s lost about 1.5 mph on his fastball from last season, and seems to be compensating by going to the breaking-ball more often. It might all come crashing down soon, but for now I’m going to enjoy his 20:1 strike-out to walk ratio (if he kept it up, it would be a record – almost doubling the previous high of 11 K/BB set by Bret Saberhagen).