2010 Orioles Projections – The Optimist’s Version

I presented the 2010 Orioles Projections yesterday*, but I thought it’d be fun to take a look at the most optimistic projections I got. I kept the playing time consistent with the last one, but just entered in the rosiest submissions for each player.

* In retrospect, maybe I should have put this up today as an April Fools post and then the real ones tomorrow instead. Would have given me a chance to replace Andino with Julio Lugo too. Oh well.

Basically, Wieters and Markakis are going to be battling for the MVP award; Roberts and Jones, plus maybe Tejada, will join those two at the All-Star game; Bell is going to hit the ground mashing; and even Atkins is going to be decent. Everyone is a plus baserunner, and everyone except Wiggy is a plus (or even plus-plus) fielder. That’s over 44 WAR^ right there, which would be way more than FanGraphs has recorded for any team (going back to 2002). This line-up would hit .286/.361/.472 and score about 915 run – basically the New York Yankees from last year. The defense would be about +71 runs, which is a touch better than the 2009 Rays (which didn’t include catcher defense). So yeah, they’d be pretty good.

The pitching staff isn’t quite as ridiculous:

No one contending for a Cy Young, but four above average starters individually and five if you just count the rotation slots (17.2 WAR over 5 spots is over 3.4 WAR per spot). On the other hand, even the people that like Berken don’t seem to like him all that much – I personally think he could get that FIP^ under 5, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I also think that at least a couple of the guys in the pen will meet these projections (especially Meredith, Albers, et al,. for whom the most optimistic projection isn’t really different from their overall one).

Overall, such a team would be expected to win over 110 games and pretty much just demolish whoever’s in their way. Nice to see there are still some O’s fans out there that really, really, believe in their guys.