2010 Orioles Beyond W-L

Where they stand:

Wins-Losses Actual Runs Scored Actual Runs Allowed Pythagorean W% Pythagorean Wins-Losses
66-99 613 785 .387 63-99

The Pythagorean winning percentage is based on runs scored and runs allowed, and is actually using the Pythagenpat^ formula that adjusts for run scoring environment.

Some underlying stats:

wOBA Baserunning FIP xFIP xFIP Runs Defense
.309 -5 4.57 4.62 801 -18

wOBA^ takes care of the batting (and stolen bases), with wRC (total runs created based on wOBA from FanGraphs) being the main component of expected runs scored. Baserunning^ from Baseball Prospectus is the other part there. xFIP Runs just takes xFIP^ times games (IP over 9) and divided by .92 to go from earned runs to runs, and combines with defense (average of UZR^ and adjusted Defensive Runs Saved based on +/-, with the latter’s stolen base values for catcher defense counting double since UZR doesn’t account for that) to give the expected runs allowed.

Record implied by the underlying stats:

Expected Runs Scored Expected Runs Allowed Expected W% Expected Wins-Losses
640 819 .386 63-99

Incorporating strength of schedule:

Adjusted Runs Scored Adjusted Runs Allowed Adjusted W% Adjusted Wins-Losses
661 799 .412 67-95

Baseball Prospectus has a strength of schedule adjustment in their standings page (which doesn’t always update daily), and I just take the differences between their second order runs scored and allowed (like the expected values above) and their third order runs (which are the adjusted values) and add them to the expected runs above.