Comments on: Just How Bad Of A Major Leaguer Would I Be? http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/ The happenings of the Baltimore Orioles. Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:25:23 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: YankeesVine » Blog Archive » With This Lineup, I Could Play Left Field… http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-327 YankeesVine » Blog Archive » With This Lineup, I Could Play Left Field… Wed, 13 Jan 2010 11:46:23 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-327 [...] Crazies runs the numbers.  Assuming I could put up a .000/.050/.000 line (I’ll get hit with a ball eventually), [...] [...] Crazies runs the numbers.  Assuming I could put up a .000/.050/.000 line (I’ll get hit with a ball eventually), [...]

]]> By: Twitted by smackard http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-282 Twitted by smackard Mon, 04 Jan 2010 05:16:25 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-282 [...] This post was Twitted by smackard [...] [...] This post was Twitted by smackard [...]

]]> By: Darryl http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-267 Darryl Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:20:17 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-267 This is awesome. This is awesome.

]]> By: Daniel Moroz http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-266 Daniel Moroz Thu, 31 Dec 2009 00:20:42 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-266 Some clarification from the super awesome Colin Wyers - now at Baseball Prospectus: "When using a linear run estimator, you're not creating negative runs so much as you are reducing everyone else's run value." (me) "Yeah, in the comments I was referring to my effect on the team's runs. That is basically correct though, right?" (Colin) "Sort of.There are no actual negative runs. But you're decreasing your teammates run production more than what you contribute." So while I was certainly technically wrong, the original estimate seems like it might be close to accurate (unless I'm still being wrong, which is entirely possible). Sounds like if I played in LF it might come out as anywhere from 3 to 9 wins worse on top of it. Some clarification from the super awesome Colin Wyers – now at Baseball Prospectus:

“When using a linear run estimator, you’re not creating negative runs so much as you are reducing everyone else’s run value.”

(me) “Yeah, in the comments I was referring to my effect on the team’s runs. That is basically correct though, right?”

(Colin) “Sort of.There are no actual negative runs. But you’re decreasing your teammates run production more than what you contribute.”

So while I was certainly technically wrong, the original estimate seems like it might be close to accurate (unless I’m still being wrong, which is entirely possible). Sounds like if I played in LF it might come out as anywhere from 3 to 9 wins worse on top of it.

]]> By: Ian Oland http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-265 Ian Oland Wed, 30 Dec 2009 23:47:12 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-265 Wow this is fantastic. Wow this is fantastic.

]]> By: Daniel Moroz http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-264 Daniel Moroz Wed, 30 Dec 2009 22:10:55 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-264 On second look Michael, would you mind expounding a little on why it can't be worse than 72 runs? If the average PA is 0.12 runs, why couldn't I be worth -0.12 runs/PA? Negative runs created exist, no? If you take an average AL team from 2009 - hit .267/.336/.428 and scored 781 runs with 6252 PA - and replace 600 of those PA with a .000/.050/.000 line, they'd hit .241/.309/.387. That's a little worse than the actual worst team (SEA), who hit .258/.314/.402 and scored 640 runs with 6113 PA. Scale that up to 6252 PA, and it's 655 runs; 126 fewer than the average team. Since the new theoretical team is worse than the Mariners were, I'd say a 155 run drop is possible. I also took a look at the line-up analysis tool at Baseball Musings. If I make each batter league average (.336 OBP and .428 SLG) then I come out with 4.847 runs per game, or 785 runs over 162 games (very close to the 781 from 2009). If I then replace one of the batters with me (.050 OBP and .000 SLG), then I get 3.887 runs per game, or 630 for the season. A drop of 155 runs. On second look Michael, would you mind expounding a little on why it can’t be worse than 72 runs? If the average PA is 0.12 runs, why couldn’t I be worth -0.12 runs/PA? Negative runs created exist, no?

If you take an average AL team from 2009 – hit .267/.336/.428 and scored 781 runs with 6252 PA – and replace 600 of those PA with a .000/.050/.000 line, they’d hit .241/.309/.387. That’s a little worse than the actual worst team (SEA), who hit .258/.314/.402 and scored 640 runs with 6113 PA. Scale that up to 6252 PA, and it’s 655 runs; 126 fewer than the average team. Since the new theoretical team is worse than the Mariners were, I’d say a 155 run drop is possible.

I also took a look at the line-up analysis tool at Baseball Musings. If I make each batter league average (.336 OBP and .428 SLG) then I come out with 4.847 runs per game, or 785 runs over 162 games (very close to the 781 from 2009). If I then replace one of the batters with me (.050 OBP and .000 SLG), then I get 3.887 runs per game, or 630 for the season. A drop of 155 runs.

]]> By: Daniel Moroz http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-263 Daniel Moroz Wed, 30 Dec 2009 21:30:49 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-263 Indeed you did, Crawdaddy. You called it at -7 right away. Was it just a lucky guess? Indeed you did, Crawdaddy. You called it at -7 right away. Was it just a lucky guess?

]]> By: Stacey http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-262 Stacey Wed, 30 Dec 2009 21:30:01 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-262 ha ha this is a hoot, Daniel. I wonder how many wins it would cost the team if I were a player and dropped the bat and covered my head in fear every time a pitch was thrown? ha ha this is a hoot, Daniel. I wonder how many wins it would cost the team if I were a player and dropped the bat and covered my head in fear every time a pitch was thrown?

]]> By: Pat Owens http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-261 Pat Owens Wed, 30 Dec 2009 20:49:10 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-261 Put all the stats and reasoning to rest... because you don't even need them. That's simply a hilarious concept and a great article. What IF people could pay the team to play? Who would? Billy Crystal maybe? Garth Brooks? Put all the stats and reasoning to rest… because you don’t even need them. That’s simply a hilarious concept and a great article.

What IF people could pay the team to play? Who would? Billy Crystal maybe? Garth Brooks?

]]> By: Crawdaddy http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/30/just-how-bad-of-a-major-leaguer-would-i-be/#comment-260 Crawdaddy Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:56:00 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=1098#comment-260 Yep, that is what I thought. Yep, that is what I thought.

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