Orioles Sign Garrett Atkins To Play Third-Base
December 17th, 2009 | by Daniel Moroz |I just wrote about the potential move a couple of days ago, but I didn’t expect Andy MacPhail to act so quickly. It’s probably easiest to just quote myself:
“Atkins has gone from great (.410 wOBA) to very good (.368) to OK (.337) to bad (.291) with the bat, though that last one is largely the result of a .247 BABIP. His strike-out rate is up a little and his contact rate is falling. I don’t know if the drop in power is partially a fluke, but his HR/FB has been going down quickly as well (13.2% to 10.9% to 9.9% to 7.3%). The projections for Atkins currently range from around .275/.345/.450 (FanGraphs fans, Bill James) to .258/.329/.410 (CHONE, already taking into account leaving Coors). Splitting the difference-ish (while acknowledging that moving from the NL to the AL is tougher), you get something like .265/.335/.425, which would make Atkins about an average hitter.
Defensively Atkins posted a -0.7 UZR/150 at third last year but marks of -8.6 and -14.6 in the two years previous. The Fan Scouting report, which is kind of corroborated by the UZR breakdown, has him as not rangy at all but with OK hands and a fine arm. You’re probably looking at something along the lines of -5 to -7 with the glove next year.
Put that together – in, say, 550 PA – and you’ve got a a fairly solid 1.5 Win player (worth ~$6.8 M). Despite my earlier claim that I wouldn’t go much over a million bucks on him – just looking at the trend-line scared me off – Atkins would probably be worth a flyer at $3-4 M. There are a lot of risks there though, so I’m still leery.”
Given that the Orioles signed him for one year and $4.5 M ($4 M in 2010 with an $8.5 M option for 2011 and a $0.5 M buyout – plus $0.5 M in PA incentives), I’m less than thrilled with the deal. Before the signing – which I thought would come in at $5 M (which is likely what Atkins will end up receiveing) – I said under $4 M would be fine, $4-6 M I could live with but wouldn’t be happy about, and over $6 M would be bad. Well, the O’s came in right in that middle area, where it seems they’ve lived this off-season. The move isn’t terrible, and I think there’s a fair chance that Atkins will be slightly underpaid, but it’s not without downside risk and isn’t a straight bargain.
On the other hand, it’s certainly better than giving up a couple prospects for Dan Uggla, and at least Atkins should be able to play third-base until Josh Bell is ready (and no longer). If it turns out that Troy Glaus can still play third, or Joe Crede signs for $1-2 M, then I’ll be disappointed. In general though, the O’s needed a stop-gap at the position and that’s what they got.
How do you all think Garrett Atkins and his new teammates will do next season? 2010 Projection
Tags: Garrett Atkins, Orioles
By Krem on Dec 18, 2009
I like the Atkins move, especially since he can play first and third. The O’s may have given him a little too much money, but in the end, he’s really only there for this season anyway. It is scary, though, to think that he may be hitting cleanup.
By saj on Dec 23, 2009
babip is not some random thing. when strikeouts go up, hr’s don’t go out, & line drives migrate into fly balls, the drop in babip didn’t just happen, it was earned. also, strategically, what young pitchers’ development needs is solid defense. Runs don’t matter. A -5 uzr doesn’t help, and that’s his ceiling.