2009 O’s Retrospective: Jason Berken
December 3rd, 2009 | by Daniel Moroz |In part thirty-one of my almost 50 part series “Better Know An Oriole” (otherwise known as 2009 Orioles Retrospective), I take a look at rookie right-hander Jason Berken… THE FIGHTIN’ WINLESS STREAK!
Berken was not considered one of the O’s top pitching prospects, but the 25 year-old was one of the most ready for the big leagues and so when a spot opened up in the rotation at the end of May, he was given a chance. Berken won his first start – defeating the Blue Jays with 5 innings of decent work – and then proceeded to suck… a lot.
He wouldn’t win another game for 13 more starts (at which point he was 1-9), again beating Toronto. His 6-12 record was ugly, and the 6.54 ERA was even uglier – only Kansas City’s Luke Hochaver at 6.55 had a worse ERA in the majors amongst pitcher with at least 100 IP (and at least he had a start with only 80 pitches in a complete game and another with 13 K’s). Things weren’t really all that bad though.
Berken showed decent control with a 3.3 BB/9 rate, though his 5.0 K/9 was below average. There was a lot of hard contact as well, with 1.4 HR/9 and a 24.1% line drive rate. Still, a 5.31 FIP in 119.2 IP made Berken a 0.7 Wins Above Replacement player, and his expected FIP from The Hardball Times was even a little better at 5.29 (they had a 5.36 FIP, so I guess it would be like 5.24 at FanGraphs, to compare to the 5.31). The 6.16 tERA tells a scarier story though, and it’s probably best to consider Berken a very slightly above replacement level pitcher last year, and likely going forward in large part as well.
Looking at Pitch/FX info., it seems that Berken’s stuff is pretty average. His fastball velocity (92.2 mph), movement, and how often he threw it (53% of the time) are all almost exactly league average. His slider had a little more drop; his change-up and curveball a little less. He’d even mix in an occasional two-seamer. Overall, it’s an underwhelming but full repertoire. Going by the run values per 100 pitches thrown, the fastball was his least-bad pitch at -0.80 runs relative to average, followed by the slider (-1.23), curveball (-2.43), and change-up (-3.10).
As of now, Berken doesn’t have a spot in the rotation for 2010. He might make a decent long-man and could fill in if injury strikes, but I don’t think he’s going to be an important piece the next time the O’s are competitive.
Photo by Jim McIsaac.
By Andrew @ TLC on Dec 4, 2009
The fact that one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this past year was still above replacement makes me really, really wonder about fangraphs’ (or whoever’s) definition of “replacement”.
Is it simply a case of the sheer amount of innings Berken gave that brought him above negative value?
By Daniel Moroz on Dec 4, 2009
The number of innings affects the magnitude but no the direction. Berken was above replacement level because, even though his ERA was atrocious, his FIP (based on K, BB, and HR) was better than a replacement level pitcher’s. The number of innings pushed his WAR to 0.7, but he really didn’t pitch quite as badly as it looked.
If his underlying performance (FIP, in this case) was as bad as his ERA then he certainly would have been below replacement level.
Hope that helped.