Trading For Kevin Millwood Is A Bad Idea
November 30th, 2009 | by Daniel Moroz |News on the Twitter-verse this evening had a rumor that the Orioles were interested in acquiring Rangers’ starter Kevin Millwood. That wouldn’t be a good idea, and here’s why (real quick). Kevin Millwood is owed $12 M in 2010. Despite his 3.67 ERA last year, he’s really only a league average starter – something like a 4.50 FIP and 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (and his tERAs are actually in the 5.00 area). That is certainly valuable; in fact, it’s value is something like $12 M. That means that Millwood is being paid about what here’s worth.
So if the Rangers were just giving him away, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to pick him up. But they’re not giving him away; they want to get other players back in a trade for him. Therefore, if the Orioles give up anyone that’s worth anything (like Luke Scott, which I saw as a suggestion) then they’re making a mistake. If the Rangers want to eat a bit of salary or take back say, Ty Wigginton, then I might be OK with that. Giving up honest to goodness prospects though – for one year of Kevin Millwood – would be a terribly stupid thing to do. And no, I don’t care about Millwood’s “veteran presence” helping the young O’s pitchers; that’s why they hire pitching coaches, no?
Tags: Kevin Millwood
By Dempsey's Army on Dec 1, 2009
If the O’s take on all the salary, I would imagine we give up nobody of consequence. As it should be.
Millwood’s declining strikeout rate and fly ball tendencies scare me though. Millwood was wicked lucky in 2009.
By Daniel Moroz on Dec 1, 2009
True enough. I was actually suprised when I looked at his stats that Millwood wasn’t worse. There are red flags, but I don’t think he’d be bad next season – just not good enough to give up anything for.
As always, it depends on the particulars of any potential deal.