Camden Crazies’ Top 13 Orioles Prospects
November 23rd, 2009 | by Daniel Moroz |The Orioles graduated a lot of their top young players to the majors this season – Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Reimold, Hernandez, Mickolio – but there’s still some talent left in the system. I know a couple of the above technically qualify as minor leaguers, but I don’t consider them prospects at this point. Here are my top 13 O’s prospects, with their position and highest level reached in 2009 in parentheses, as well as how I would rate them. I weighed proximity to the majors, stats, scouting reports, and projected future contributions when doing these rankings.
13. Oliver Drake (RHP, A-Ball, C) – Showed good control (2.9 BB/9) and a decent strike-out rate (7.2 K/9) while getting some groundballs (50%). Four-pitch pitcher, could be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter.
12. Pedro Florimon (SS, Double-A, C+) – Spent almost the entire season at High-A, hitting .267/.336/.428. He cut down on the K’s a little to a still high 24.9%, and kept the walks at a decent level at 8.9%. Despite the high number of errors, reports are that he can play a good shortstop which will largely determine how far he can advance. It’s pretty close between Florimon and Mychal Givens as the O’s top shortstop prospect; Givens is younger and may have a higher ceiling, but he hasn’t played any pro-ball yet.
11. Steven Johnson (RHP, Double-A, C+) – Had the strike-out pitch working, with an 11.8 K/9 in Double-A and a 9.5 K/9 in High-A before his call-up. His control improved at the higher level as well, from 3.9 BB/9 to 2.9 BB/9. The main concern is that Johnson’s an extreme flyball pitcher, which is going to result in a lot of home runs at the major league level.
10. Xavier Avery (CF, A-Ball, C+) – .262/.306/.340. The guy can’t really hit, what with the not walking and also striking out a bunch. If his speed translates into great defense in center, then he can be valuable anyway. And his age and athleticism leaves a lot of room for development. Need to see some production at some point though.
9. Jesse Beal (RHP, Rookie League, C+) – 13 starts with a 5 K/9, 1 BB/9, and a 60% GB rate. The 19 year-old is big at 6-6, so he may still pick up some more velocity. I’m always a fan of good control and groundballs. Still a long ways away, but there’s a lot to like.
8. Brandon Waring (1B/3B, Double-A, C+) – I discussed Waring and his MVP season previously. Lots of power, lots of strike-outs. Still not sure he can be much more than a bench bat.
7. Caleb Joseph (C, High-A, C+) – .284/.337/.450. Needs to work on the plate discipline, but the the bat will play behind the plate (which is where it looks like he’ll stay for now). Upped his walks a little and cut down on the K’s from last year. Not young for his level at 23.
6. Matt Hobgood (RHP, Rookie League, B-) – Just 26.2 IP, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 57% GB rate. Sinker was as advertised, and I’m really looking forward to see how he’ll do in a full season next year. Middle-of-the-rotation innings eater is more valuable than it sounds.
5. Brandon Snyder (1B, Triple-A, B) – .248/.316/.355 at Triple-A, .343/.421/.597 at Double-A. Not concerned about the struggles after his promotion given his age (22). I like that he started walking more this year, and I’m coming around to him hitting enough overall (not a ton of power) to play first in the majors. Especially if his glove comes around. If he has a big Spring Training he may be the Orioles Opening Day first-baseman.
4. Brandon Erbe (RHP, Double-A, B) – Strike-out rate was down to 7.6 K/9 in Double-A, and his walks shot up to 4.3 BB/9. Still young at 21, and I still believe in his stuff. Bullpen as a back-up plan isn’t too discouraging, if he can up his velocity in short stints.
3. Jake Arrieta (RHP, Triple-A, B+) – His strike-out rate fell from 10.7 K/9 to 7.7 K/9 when he was promoted from Double-A mid-season, but his walks also fell from 3.5 BB/9 to 3.2 BB.9. I like his stuff, but I don’t think he has the Ace potential that other foresaw for him previously.
2. Josh Bell (3B, Double-A, B+) – .295/.376/.516. Big bounce-back season offensively, and it sounds like he’ll be able to stick at third. Should see the majors in 2010.
1. Zach Britton (LHP, High-A, B+) – Britton had a very good year, which I looked at here. Tons of groundballs, and he started K’ing more batters. I’m already pretty high on the kid, and if he keeps it up at Double-A next year I’ll be really excited about his prospects.
The O’s don’t have those real blue-chip prospects anymore, but there’s a good amount of depth extending out amongst the C type guys. The number 13 prospect isn’t that different from who the number 25 prospect might be. With the #3 overall pick in the 2010 draft, the O’s should be adding some top talent to the system soon.
[Edit: For the record, if I included them I'd have Matusz 1st and Mickolio 9th (behind Joseph).]
Tags: Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, Brandon Waring, Caleb Joseph, Jake Arrieta, Jesse Beal, Josh Bell, Matt Hobgood, Oliver Drake, Pedro Florimon, Steven Johnson, Xavier Avery, Zach Britton
By Andrew @ TLC on Nov 23, 2009
I’m just interested in your thoughts (or lack thereof) of Ronnie Welty, who I like more than Avery and Florimon (at least…I haven’t really thought about rankings, and I’m anything but qualified to deliver a scouting report).
He’s got a lot of work to do, particularly in cutting down on the strikeouts, but I like his walking ability and power potential – even though he’s had some crazy BABiPs in his first couple of years of pro ball.
Anyway, like I said, I like him even though he’s nowhere close, and he doesn’t get a lot of press, so I’m just curious if entered into mind while you were paring.
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 23, 2009
I didn’t give a lot of consideration to Welty for mostly the reasons you mentioned. The walks were good but not outstanding, and he did strike-out a lot considering he didn’t hit for all that much power. I’ve also hear – repeatedly – that his swing is funky; while some guys can certainly succeed that way (Hunter Pence, a guy Welty is sometimes compared to, for example), it’s not exactly a plus. For now I have doubts that he makes it passed Triple-A – and even if he did it’s probably not that high a ceiling – but a good year next season could change that.
By Jordan on Nov 27, 2009
I like the list. Its fun comparing your list to mine http://www.oriolesprospects.com/OP/Top_20_Prospects.html
We are both very high on Britton, and have him as the number one prospect (I have Matusz first on mine but you dont include him). I dont think Hobgood should be that high but thats just my opinion. Love your opinion though, thanks for posting.
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 27, 2009
Thanks for the comment Jordan. I saw enough out of Hobgood in his limited time (fine control, strong GB rate) that – combined with the scouting reports and his first-round pick status – I felt comfortable putting him that high on the list. Not unreasonable at all to rank him lower though.
By Jordan on Nov 27, 2009
Yeah I could see people putting him that high, just want to see him at higher levels. You can definitely justify him being that high though, has potential to be a front of the rotation starter.