Comments on: Turning The O’s Into Instant Contenders http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/ The happenings of the Baltimore Orioles. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:53:25 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Daniel Moroz http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-168 Daniel Moroz Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:06:10 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-168 Hey Matt, thanks for the comments. FanGraphs - which is what I based the WAR off of - doesn't adjust for the AL/NL disparity. A 40 WAR team in the AL won't have as good of a record as a 40 WAR team in the NL, since the level of competition in the AL is higher. That's why I started out at 44 wins for a replacement level team, instead of a higher number had it been an NL team. While I could have given higher WAR numbers to several players, I wanted to stay within the bounds of reasonableness. I try not to be an "Orioles Homer". The general point was that they can't buy their way to the top this offseason. Hey Matt, thanks for the comments.

FanGraphs – which is what I based the WAR off of – doesn’t adjust for the AL/NL disparity. A 40 WAR team in the AL won’t have as good of a record as a 40 WAR team in the NL, since the level of competition in the AL is higher. That’s why I started out at 44 wins for a replacement level team, instead of a higher number had it been an NL team.

While I could have given higher WAR numbers to several players, I wanted to stay within the bounds of reasonableness. I try not to be an “Orioles Homer”.

The general point was that they can’t buy their way to the top this offseason.

]]> By: Matt P http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-167 Matt P Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:12:44 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-167 I looked at my numbers again and found out that they were wrong. That would make my whole comment incorrect. I looked at my numbers again and found out that they were wrong. That would make my whole comment incorrect.

]]> By: Matt P http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-166 Matt P Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:33:32 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-166 Considering that the Phillies had a WAR of 41.7(a 40.7 WAR the year before), the Dodgers had a 43.4 WAR, the Redsox had a 45 WAR(to be fair, they did have a 51.4 WAR in 2008 the only 50+ WAR I saw) and the Yankees had a 49.5 WAR last year, why do you think the Orioles would need a 50 WAR to just make the playoffs? In comparison, last year the Orioles had a WAR of about 20. If they do improve the way you project and they made a trade for Josh Johnson(project him for a 6 WAR) and Dan Uggla(project him for 3 WAR at 3B), then this would put the Orioles at 44.5 WAR and if all goes well in position to compete with the Red Sox. Also, if you're an Oriole Homer, you could say that Markasis is likely to have a 6 WAR again like he did two years ago, you could say that Bergy will likely have a 3 or a 3.5 WAR as he'll show some improvement and pitch more innings(he had a terrible start to the season), you could say that Luke Scott is a 3 WAR player as he's playing a position where he finally has a good UZR and probably a few more things. Don't get me wrong, the Orioles probably can't contend for a playoff spot in 2010. But it's not as bleak as you make it look. Considering that the Phillies had a WAR of 41.7(a 40.7 WAR the year before), the Dodgers had a 43.4 WAR, the Redsox had a 45 WAR(to be fair, they did have a 51.4 WAR in 2008 the only 50+ WAR I saw) and the Yankees had a 49.5 WAR last year, why do you think the Orioles would need a 50 WAR to just make the playoffs?

In comparison, last year the Orioles had a WAR of about 20. If they do improve the way you project and they made a trade for Josh Johnson(project him for a 6 WAR) and Dan Uggla(project him for 3 WAR at 3B), then this would put the Orioles at 44.5 WAR and if all goes well in position to compete with the Red Sox.

Also, if you’re an Oriole Homer, you could say that Markasis is likely to have a 6 WAR again like he did two years ago, you could say that Bergy will likely have a 3 or a 3.5 WAR as he’ll show some improvement and pitch more innings(he had a terrible start to the season), you could say that Luke Scott is a 3 WAR player as he’s playing a position where he finally has a good UZR and probably a few more things.

Don’t get me wrong, the Orioles probably can’t contend for a playoff spot in 2010. But it’s not as bleak as you make it look.

]]> By: Dempsey's Army http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-156 Dempsey's Army Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:58:30 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-156 Well laid out. the only way the Orioles contend next season is if Matusz, Tillman, Reimold, Jones and Markakis ALL make quantum leaps next season. I mean, these hitters would have to all OPS north of .900 and Tillman and Matusz need to develop into front line starters from day 1. I don't think Lackey would be a crazy signing looking forward to 2011-2012...but that seems unlikely. Well laid out. the only way the Orioles contend next season is if Matusz, Tillman, Reimold, Jones and Markakis ALL make quantum leaps next season. I mean, these hitters would have to all OPS north of .900 and Tillman and Matusz need to develop into front line starters from day 1.

I don’t think Lackey would be a crazy signing looking forward to 2011-2012…but that seems unlikely.

]]> By: Ian Oland http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-155 Ian Oland Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:50:57 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-155 This is the greatest article ever! And for somebody like me, who's completely unrealistic and thinks this team is one or two guys away, it's a trip back to reality. I'm glad I could be the inspiration for this article. This is the greatest article ever! And for somebody like me, who’s completely unrealistic and thinks this team is one or two guys away, it’s a trip back to reality. I’m glad I could be the inspiration for this article.

]]> By: Stacey http://camdencrazies.com/2009/11/16/turning-the-os-into-instant-contenders/#comment-154 Stacey Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:45:33 +0000 http://camdencrazies.com/?p=707#comment-154 This is a great article, Daniel, and I think shows just why 2011 is a much more reasonable goal for contention than 2010. This is a great article, Daniel, and I think shows just why 2011 is a much more reasonable goal for contention than 2010.

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