How About If O’s Trade For Dan Uggla?
November 11th, 2009 | by Daniel Moroz |More trade rumors, this time with the O’s being interesting in Florida second-baseman Dan Uggla, who they would presumably move to third-base. Uggla can certainly swing the bat with a career .257/.344/.482 line, but his defense isn’t great (-9.6 UZR/150 last year, -2.9 UZR/150 career) and he only has two years before he’s a free agent. If you DH him due to the defense though, you lose some value since he’s not a complete butcher with the glove. Uggla’s career WAR marks (’09 first) are: 2.9, 4.7, 2.7, and 4.1.
Assume he’s about a 3.5 Wins Above Replacement player and that he gets 60% and 80% of his full value in arbitration, and that’s a little less than $10 M in excess value to his team. And that doesn’t account for any aging for the 29 year old. Brandon Erbe should be about what is takes to get a deal done (and might be on the high side), but I imagine the Marlins would want a fair bit more than that. Therefore I’d take a pass. [Edit: Maybe not. Sounds like Florida would be OK with a second-tier pitching prospect. In that case, it might be doable and I'd need to see some actual specifics on a deal. I still think trying to find a bargain in free agency is the way to go. Get less production and less value, but get to keep your prospects.]
By Stacey on Nov 11, 2009
I don’t know about Uggla. I guess it depends on how he’d do at third which is nothing we can know before the trade. But if we assume he’s about a 3.5 WAR then it seems that Beltre could give us that and he’s a good defender who’d only cost $$.
By Dempsey's Army on Nov 11, 2009
Dan Uggla had the lowest OPS+ of any hitter to hit 30 HR in the National League and only Curtis Granderson had a lower OPS among 30 HR hitters in all of baseball.
His ISO also slipped from the 2007-08 levels.
Interesting pickup but I’m not even sure he’s worth Erbe (or any top prospect for that matter).
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 11, 2009
Both good points.
I agree that in general I’d prefer to sign a free agent than give up talent for Uggla. Making a trade depends just how high you are on Erbe. I thought that was in the neighborhood of being a fair deal for both sides, but just Erbe for Uggla straight-up isn’t something I’d likely do.
By Andrew @ TLC on Nov 11, 2009
Yes, it would seem that getting Uggla would give the Orioles power and little more, since his OBP is nothing to really write home about. A .350ish wOBA would be ranked in the lower third in the majors at first base (and bottom of the AL East), about middle of the pack at DH, and above average at third base (but behind the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees)…and that doesn’t account of the butcher fielding that would most likely happen.
I’m not sure why the O’s ought to give up something to get average or worst production at a key position when they can do at least as well on the market, even as weak as it is. Oh – and Uggla can’t hit lefties, so he doesn’t even give Dave Trembley the “right handed” bat he really wants.
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 11, 2009
I don’t want people to actually underrate Uggla. He’s a very good player – above average – and he would make the O’s a better team. He would have been the team’s second most valuable player last year, and that was a down-ish season for him.
My point was that I’d rather sign Troy Glaus for $5 M than to trade prospects for Uggla who’ll be more expensive (but better!) and will be gone after two years.
By Stacey on Nov 11, 2009
Yeah I’m not meaning to hate on Uggla, he’s a good player. I just don’t know that there’s a place for him on the O’s. I just can’t see him at 3B.
If they could get him for very cheap then maybe I’d feel differently. Erbe seems like too much, plus he’s a sentimental favorite of mine (have to love the local boy).
By Andrew @ TLC on Nov 11, 2009
Considering the Orioles had the worst first base situation and didn’t get much offensively out of Mora last year, “improvement” would be one thing, but…well, I just don’t believe that Uggla is the answer at any of the positions the Orioles have holes at
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 11, 2009
So it sounds like we’re all in agreement. I’ll get a memo together to send to Andy telling him to pass on Uggla unless the Marlins are giving him away.
By Michael Jong on Nov 11, 2009
Daniel,
I implore you to remain on the Uggla bandwagon. The Orioles have a plethora of outfielders, and one of either Reimold or Pie and a low-B to high-C pitching prospect would probably be a good trade for either team, when looking at surplus value. I have Uggla providing $15M in surplus value beyond his arbitration contracts the next two years, that theoretically would be worth more than one mid-level prospect.
Just a thought. Of all the teams mentioned as Uggla suitors, the Orioles have the most depth prospect and major-league wise to trade from, which is why my interest is piqued.
By Dempsey's Army on Nov 11, 2009
Maybe we can send Robert Andino back for Uggla? He could play 2B.
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 11, 2009
At $15M for Uggla, Pie would be a pretty fair return by himself. Reimold would be too much assuming his defense isn’t actually as bad as UZR had him this year.
I’m sorry Michael, but I don’t think that’s happening. Of course, if you and I could handle the negotiations then perhaps we would be able to work something out.
By Michael Jong on Nov 11, 2009
Daniel,
I’d be more than happy to discuss imaginary trades for the franchises we run in our imaginations. Have your people call my people!
In all seriousness however, I agree that either Pie or Reimold would be solid returns given the surplus value. I also think such a deal would never be made just because teams don’t always think in that fashion. I think teams that trade the superior talent (assuming we agree that Uggla is the superior player involved) should receive either a player of similar caliber or more highly-touted prospect in a 1-for-1.
That being said, if you think of Pie as a prospect, I suppose that works out as well. It should be interested to watch if anything. Keep up the good work, fellow BBA member!
By sadler on Nov 12, 2009
This trade has the feeling of a previous regime. I hope McPhail doesn’t do this. It could get UGGLA! ha!
By andrew on Nov 13, 2009
id rather have uggla then adrian beltre, who i beleive is highly overrated when it comes to hitting, his best offensive year was in his contract year. I say make the deal for uggla mayeb he could play 1st instead
By Daniel Moroz on Nov 13, 2009
I might rather have Uggla than Beltre (who isn’t as good of a hitter – but it’s closer than it appears since Beltre played in the AL in a pitcher’s park – and a much better better defender), but I’d rather have Beltre and Brandon Erbe than Uggla and $4 M (or whatever the difference in salaries between Beltre and Uggla will be over the next two years).