I read in interesting article over at the Baseball Analysts today regarding strength of competition. The Orioles – as would be expected playing in the AL East – had the most difficult schedule in baseball. The writer (Jeremy Greenhouse) had this to say:
“Given a fair strength of schedule, the Orioles would have been expected to score some 20 runs greater and allow some 20 fewer with a fair strength of schedule. Given this fact, as well as Baltimore’s youth, and the concept of regression to the mean, you can already mark me down for the Orioles’ over next year.”
The O’s have given up 860 runs and scored 714; that translates into a Pythagorean record of 66-92 (compared to their actual record of 60-98). Given them 24 more runs scored and 22 fewer runs allowed (which appear to be the actual values in the table in the column) and they’re Pythagorean record moves to 70-88. That’s a whopping 10 wins from where the team currently sits. Just something to keep in mind as the O’s stumble to the finish line.
And don’t forget that Camden Crazies has been nominated by the Baltimore Sun as one of Maryland’s Outstanding Blogs of 2009! I’m really honored to be considered for the award and would really appreciate you all voting for me in the O’s category, as well as for my other site, Matt Wieters Facts, in the Humor category. Thank you all for reading – and voting.