Productive Hitting Without The Walks

Felix Pie recently set a Baltimore Orioles record, going 63 straight plate appearances putting the ball in play (no strike-outs, no walks, no HBP). Since the streak was snapped though, Felix has K’ed 9 times and only walked twice, batting just .264/.286/.340. Overall this season, Pie is striking out in just 12.8% of his at bats (almost half of last year’s 23%) and walking in a tiny 3.3% of his plate appearances (closer to a third of 2009’s 8.5%). Despite the lack of free passes, he’s still been a relatively productive hitter – .286/.311/.434, and a perfectly average .323 wOBA (100 wRC+). That’s right about the level he was at last year as well (.326 wOBA, 98 wRC+), which got me to thinking about how successful a hitter could be if he never walked. How much would he have to cut down on his K’s? How much power would he have to show? What about a high BABIP? The answer is over at Beyond The Box Score.

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Tags: Beyond The Box Score, Felix Pie

Game 133: Orioles 6, Red Sox 9

The Good:

* It might not help his ERA, but Jake Arrieta had perhaps his best start in the majors up to this point. Final line; 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, o BB, 5 K, 1 HR. It was the first time all year he didn’t walk a batter (previous low was 2), and if he has another game like this he’ll actually get his K/BB ratio above 1 (it’s at 44:46 now). He gave up a lot of flyballs – 8 (to only 3 groundballs) – with one going over the fence, even though he used his two-seamer pretty often. A little too much locating up in the zone, I guess. Still, it’s progress.

* Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, and Felix Pie each picked up a couple hits.

The Bad:

* Mark Hendrickson didn’t have his best relied outing, blowing the lead by giving up a two-run homer and walking a batter before getting pulled (after throwing a scoreless frame).

* Alferdo Simon blew the tie, coming in for Hendrickson and letting in three runs (two on a home run). His home run rate is now 1.8 per nine, and his HR/FB rate is about 20%. That latter figure is the second highest in the majors this year, amongst all pitchers with at least 40 IP. There is no way I buy that that’s going to remain at that level. Simon’s stuff is too good for that, and 20% HR/FB rates just don’t persist. That doesn’t make the home runs any less irritating to see though.

Edit: Here’s Simon’s HR chart from HitTracker (not counting the one Beltre hit tonight, which went into the 1st row in left-field):

The average standard distance was 392.5 feet, and the average true distance was 389.9 feet (and both will be lower once Beltre’s is included). Those are perfectly normal numbers. Two of the 8 (which will be 3 of the 9) are classified as either “just enough” or “lucky”. I’m willing to accept that Simon might be more susceptible to the longball than the average pitcher, but not nearly at the level that it has been.

* 12 strike-outs and only 2 walks from the offense.

The Final:

The team certainly didn’t get September off on a good note.

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Tags: Alfedo Simon, Game Wrap, Jake Arrieta, Mark Hendrickson, Orioles, Red Sox

Orioles Magic In August

When Buck Showalter took over as manager and the Orioles started out 5-1 on his watch, I looked at how the team was doing it. With the team having finished August 17-11 – their best record in the month since 1997 – I thought I’d do an update (using full August stats for ease, which include Juan Samuel’s final game).

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Tags: Orioles

Game 132: Orioles 5, Red Sox 2

The Good:

* Brian Matusz kept rolling, with only one blip on his record. Final line; 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. He dominated David Ortiz, who went 0-3 with 3 K’s and is now 0-9 with 8 strike-outs in his career versus Matusz. Brian only got a few swings and misses, but he pounded the strike-zone pretty much all night long. His walk was on four pitches to JD Drew leading off the 7th, and it ended his evening.

* Koji Uehara picked up a rare five-out save, pitching 1.2 perfect innings with a K. If he’s willing to take a million bucks or so, I’d be very happy to have him back next year. As a Type B free agent, offering him arbitration should be an easy call in any case.

* Brian Roberts went 2-4, and his dancing off of first-base resulted in a free base when Josh Beckett rushed a pitch and threw it well wide of the catcher.

* Nick Markakis doubled – his 40th of the season. That gives him 40 for the 4th year in a row, making him one of only four players in the modern era to pull that off.

* Luke Scott singled and walked, and then later took a lefty reliever deep for his 26th home run of the year, setting a new career high. He’ll have a shot at 30 if he stays out of a slump in September.

* Felix Pie homered off the same lefty a couple batters later. Guess he’s not a LOOGY.

The Bad:

* Adam Jones struck out twice, chasing pitches out of the strike-zone. His swing looks a little long(er).

The Final:

O’s win again. Now 17-10 under Buck, and finish August at 17-11. At 49-83, the Orioles are still 4.5 games ahead of the Pirates… and I don’t think their chances of catching them are that high.

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Tags: Adam Jones, Brian Matusz, Brian Roberts, Game Wrap, Koji Uehara, Luke Scott, Nick Markakis, Orioles, Red Sox

Orioles In Fantasyland

A few weeks ago I finished reading Fantasyland – a book* by Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal chronicling his quest to win an expert rotisserie baseball league (Tout Wars) – and there were a few Orioles-related parts that I thought were amusing. The whole thing was a good** read, actually.

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Tags: Jay Gibbons, Luis Matos, Mike Flanagan, Sam Walker, Sidney Ponson

Game 130: Orioles 5, Angels 0

The Good:

* Kevin Millwood had perhaps his best start of the season. Final line; 8 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K. Couldn’t have done this kind of stuff before the trade deadline?

* Jim Johnson was back on the mound after a long absence due to injury. He looked like the old JJ, pounding the zone with those 93-94 mph two-seamers.

* Nick Markakis singled and walked twice. Nick had 3 two-walk games in the first week of the season. You have to go back from today to July 31st to get a stretch within which he’s had 3 two-walk games.

* Josh Bell hit his 3rd home run of the year, taking Scott Kazmir deep to the opposite field. All three of Bell’s homers this year have been batting right-handed – the side he’s struggled with. In fact, if you take all of his minor league home runs from the right side in 2010, 2009, 2008, and 2007 combined, you get… 3 (in 371 at bats- he has just 26 ABs versus lefties this year). His next time up – batting left-handed – Bell almost hit another one out (he just missed the pitch and flew out to deep right-field).

* Baserunning, at least for one inning. With Ty Wigginton at second-base (he led off the 6th with a double), Jake Fox hit a grounder to the right side. The pitcher and first-baseman both went for it, allowing Fox to slide into first (leading with his feet – how often do you see that happen there?) safely. Wiggy, meanwhile, motored all the way around third and came in to score on the play. Buck decided to pinch-run Corey Patterson for Fox at that point, getting some more speed on the bases and improving the defense in left-field. A couple batters later that came into play, as Cesar Izturis singled with two outs and Patterson flew home, just sliding in before the tag. No way Fox would have made it in time. Sometimes when you’re winning those are the kind of good things that happen.

* Izzy actually finished the day 3-4. And played well at short, of course.

* Felix Pie listening to me. For a guy that doesn’t hit lefties well, facing a lefty with control problems should mean a willingness to take some pitches. So when Pie came up against Kazmir in the 6th inning (right after Fox’s infield hit), I said “I desperately want Felix to walk here.” Pie tried not to, swinging at a few balls, but Kazmir’s wildness was too much and Felix did indeed draw a free pass (his only time on base in the game, even when I asked for a double). More of that please.

The Bad:

* The O’s made things easier on Kazmir than they should have, going up to the plate hacking more than they should have. Crowley can’t be brought back next year; there’s no way.

The Final:

The Orioles stave off play-off elimination for one more day with their 5-0 win. Can they make it to September still (technically) alive? We’ll see, but they’ve already guaranteed themselves a winning August at 15-11 now (15-10 under Buck).

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Tags: Angels, Cesar Izturis, Felix Pie, Game Wrap, Jim Johnson, Josh Bell, Kevin Millwood, Nick Markakis, Orioles

Game 129: Orioles 3, Angels 1

The Good:

* Brad Bergesen stayed with the prominent four-seamer strategy (averaging almost 92 mph with the pitch, and getting 5 whiffs with it), and it worked once again. Final line; 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R*, 0 BB, 4 K. Despite locating up in the zone more and not using his sinker much, Bergy still got more groundballs (13) than flyballs (10). I have to say, I’m pretty pleased with that piece on Bergesen from a couple weeks ago where I wrote about how he was pitching pretty differently. Neat to actually find something like that, and then see it on the field.

* The one run actually scored on the first of two balks called on Bergesen. Have no idea why it was called, even based on replays.

* Matt Wieters singled and doubled.

* Josh Bell – who didn’t even start the game – went 2-2 and made a slick fielding play at third. The kid’s got a strong arm and it looks like the range is decent enough – he jsut needs some more experience there. Also, his plate discipline has been pretty atrocious.

* Besides Bell, Izzy, Pie, and Patterson all made some nice defensive plays as well.

The Bad:

* Brian Roberts led off the game with a double, stole third, and scored, but also had to leave the game early due to a hip injury. Sounds like he’s day-to-day.

* Felix Pie’s all hacking, all the time strategy was entertaining for a while, but now that his striking out again (twice today) he needs to chase less and maybe take a walk every now and again.

The Final:

O’s win 3-1, and are now 2.5 games ahead of the Pirates. Not sure the Birds will catch up to them, but it might be close. The next loss by the O’s or wins by the Rays and Yankees will eliminate Baltimore from the playoffs, I believe. Might happen in August. August!

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Tags: Angels, Brad Bergesen, Brian Roberts, Felix Pie, Game Wrap, Josh Bell, Matt Wieters, Orioles

Is Joel Guzman’s Break-Out For Real?

Former top prospect Joel Guzman has had a good season in the minors for the Bowie Baysox this year, and that’s had people talking about his potential future contributions in the majors recently. There are points for and against Guzman being thought of as a future big leaguer:

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Tags: Joel Guzman, Prospects

Game 127: Orioles 4, White Sox 2

The Good:

* Brian Matusz was on his game again, with just a single blemish (courtesy of Gordon Beckham). Final line; 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. Not a huge fan of having him throw 115+ pitches two starts in a row though.

* Brian Roberts worked a free pass and hit his 3rd home run of the season.

* Felix Pie went 2-3 and walked for the first time since July 29th.

* Matt Wieters grounded into a double play – shocking, I know – but also picked up a couple hits including a double.

The Bad:

* Josh Bell was 0-4 with 2 more strike-outs. That makes 33 strike-outs (37% of his at bats have ended in a K) and just 2 walks on the year for Bell.

The Final:

With the 4-2 win the O’s are 13-9 under Buck Showalter and remain 2 games ahead of the Pirates in the standings.

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Tags: Brian Matusz, Brian Roberts, Felix Pie, Game Wrap, Matt Wieters, Orioles, White Sox

Matt Wieters & Groundballs

I was asked a question in the comments, and thought the answer was worthwhile to post.

“Daniel,

Can you get me this piece of information, I don’t know how to find it? How many groundballs to the right side of the infield has Wieters hit this year? It seems like he rolls over an inordinate amount of balls which tells me he is trying to pull outside pitches too often among other issues.”

Checking things out:

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Tags: Matt Wieters